A prognostic score model for predicting the survival benefits of patients undergoing sorafenib plus transarterial chemoembolization for hepatocellular carcinoma with portal vein invasion

Purpose The survival benefits and which patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) would benefit from sorafenib plus transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) therapy remain controversial. We aimed to develop a prognostic score model for predicting different prognoses of patients with HCC and portal vein invasion who received sorafenib plus TACE. Methods This observational study included 167 patients with HCC and portal vein invasion undergoing sorafenib combined with TACE from January 2013 to June 2018 at two hospitals. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was performed using a training cohort ( n = 83) to identify critical factors associated with survival. Then, a prognostic score model was established to classify different outcomes and confirmed using a validation cohort ( n = 84). Results Three factors were determined to critically impact survival in the training cohort: portal vein invasion extent, sorafenib-related dermatologic response, and initial radiological response. Using the β-coefficients of these factors, a prognostic score was calculated, and the survival time decreased as the score increased. Based on the prognostic score model, three different prognoses of patients with 0 points, 2–3 points, and > 3 points were stratified with a median survival of 38.0 months, 20.0 months, and 7.0 months, respectively ( P < 0.001). Time to progression was also significantly different using the same prognostic index. The prognostic score model was confirmed by the validation cohort. Conclusion Sorafenib plus TACE is a potential therapy for selected HCC patients with portal vein invasion. This prognostic score model can predict the survival benefits for these patients.