Minimal-uncertainty prediction of general drug-likeness based on Bayesian neural networks

Triaging unpromising lead molecules early in the drug discovery process is essential for accelerating its pace while avoiding the costs of unwarranted biological and clinical testing. Accordingly, medicinal chemists have been trying for decades to develop metrics—ranging from heuristic measures to machine-learning models—that could rapidly distinguish potential drugs from small molecules that lack drug-like features. However, none of these metrics has gained universal acceptance and the very idea of ‘drug-likeness’ has recently been put into question. Here, we evaluate drug-likeness using different sets of descriptors and different state-of-the-art classifiers, reaching an out-of-sample accuracy of 87–88%. Remarkably, because these individual classifiers yield different Bayesian error distributions, their combination and selection of minimal-variance predictions can increase the accuracy of distinguishing drug-like from non-drug-like molecules to 93%. Because total variance is comparable with its aleatoric contribution reflecting irreducible error inherent to the dataset (as opposed to the epistemic contribution due to the model itself), this level of accuracy is probably the upper limit achievable with the currently known collection of drugs.