Wsr-88d Tornado Intensity Estimates. Part Ii: Real-Time Applications To Tornado Warning Time Scales

WEATHER AND FORECASTING(2020)

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摘要
A sample of damage-surveyed tornadoes in the contiguous United States (2009-17), containing specific wind speed estimates from damage indicators (DIs) within the Damage Assessment Toolkit dataset, were linked to radar observed circulations using the nearest WSR-88D data in Part I of this work. The maximum wind speed associated with the highest-rated DI for each radar scan, corresponding 0.5 degrees tilt angle rotational velocity V-rot, significant tornado parameter (STP), and National Weather Service (NWS) convective impact-based warning (IBW) type, are analyzed herein for the sample of cases in Part I and an independent case sample from parts of 2019-20. As V-rot, and STP both increase, peak DI-estimated wind speeds and IBW warning type also tend to increase. Different combinations of V-rot, STP, and population density-related to ranges of peak DI wind speed-exhibited a strong ability to discriminate across the tornado damage intensity spectrum. Furthermore, longer duration of high V-rot (i.e.,>= 70 kt) in significant tornado environments (i.e., STP >= 6) corresponds to increasing chances that DIs will reveal the occurrence of an intense tornado (i.e., EF3+). These findings were corroborated via the independent sample from parts of 2019-20, and can be applied in a real-time operational setting to assist in determining a potential range of wind speeds. This work provides evidence-based support for creating an objective and consistent, real-time framework for assessing and differentiating tornadoes across the tornado intensity spectrum.
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关键词
Supercells, Tornadoes, Storm environments, Radars/Radar observations, Forecasting techniques, Operational forecasting
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