Evaluating Satellite Sounding Temperature Observations For Cold Air Aloft Detection

Cold Air Aloft (CAA) can impact commercial flights when cold air descends below 12,192 m (40,000 ft) and temperatures drop dramatically. A CAA event is identified when air temperature falls below -65 degrees C, which decreases fuel efficiency and poses a safety hazard. This manuscript assesses the performance of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Unique Combined Atmospheric Processing System (NUCAPS) in detecting CAA events using sounders on polar-orbiting satellites. We compare NUCAPS air temperature profiles with those from Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC) for January-March 2018. Of 1311 collocated profiles, 236 detected CAA. Our results showed that NUCAPS correctly detects CAA in 48.1% of profiles, while 17.2% are false positives and 34.7% are false negatives. To identify the reason for these detection states, we used a logistic regression trained on NUCAPS diagnostic parameters. We found that cloud cover can impact the skill even at higher vertical levels. This work indicates that a CAA-specific quality flag is feasible and may be useful to help forecasters to diagnose NUCAPS in real-time. Furthermore, the inclusion of an additional sounder data source (e.g., NOAA-20) may increase CAA forecast accuracy. Cloud scenes change rapidly, so additional observations provide more opportunities for correct detection.