COVID-19 Community Incidence and Associated Neighborhood-Level Characteristics in Houston, Texas, USA

Central to developing effective control measures for the COVID-19 pandemic is understanding the epidemiology of transmission in the community. Geospatial analysis of neighborhood-level data could provide insight into drivers of infection. In the current analysis of Harris County, Texas, we used custom interpolation tools in GIS to disaggregate COVID-19 incidence estimates from the zip code to census tract estimates—a better representation of neighborhood-level estimates. We assessed the associations between 29 neighborhood-level characteristics and COVID-19 incidence using a series of aspatial and spatial models. The variables that maintained significant and positive associations with COVID-19 incidence in our final aspatial model and later represented in a geographically weighted regression model were the percentage of the Black/African American population, percentage of the foreign-born population, area derivation index (ADI), percentage of households with no vehicle, and percentage of people over 65 years old inside each census tract. Conversely, we observed negative and significant association with the percentage employed in education. Notably, the spatial models indicated that the impact of ADI was homogeneous across the study area, but other risk factors varied by neighborhood. The current findings could enhance decision making by local public health officials in responding to the COVID-19 pandemic. By understanding factors that drive community transmission, we can better target disease control measures.