Learning to Undersampling for Class Imbalanced Credit Risk Forecasting

Credit risk forecasting generally aims to evaluate the default probability of users in financial service. It is usually regarded as a binary classification problem, which suffers from the severe class-imbalance problem due to the extremely limited throngs and the concept drift problem brought by the delayed verification. In this paper, we investigate these problems in credit risk forecasting and propose a semi-supervised meta-learning based approach called TRUST (TRainable Undersampling with Self Training) to resolve. First, it decides whether to sample the data through meta-learning based reinforcement learning. Secondly, it learns the distribution of the data that have not yet shown financial performance via self-training and updates the model trained in the first step. Finally, the updated model is evaluated on the validation dataset, the result of which will be fed back through the evaluator. These three steps will be iterated until the model converges. With the real-world industrial dataset containing 1.75 million users, we investigate the effectiveness of our method. Experimental results exhibit that the proposed method is able to improve AP over 5.94% on credit risk forecasting task compared with the recent methods.