Optimization of residual stresses generated by ultrasonic nanocrystalline surface modification through analytical modeling and data-driven prediction

•An analytical model based on the Hertzian contact theory and the Neuber's plasticity law was used to predict residual stresses generated by UNSM.•Simulation was conducted with 18876 sets of UNSM cases to study the impacts of the UNSM parameters.•The effects of UNSM parameters on the residual stress magnitude and depth and surface finish were systematically studied.•A big-data based approach was used to identify the optimal UNSM parameters for different engineering needs.