Slowness Predicts Mortality: A Comparative Analysis of Walking Speed and Moberg Picking-Up Tests.

OBJECTIVES:Slow walking speed (WS) is predictive of mortality but may be difficult to measure, which compromises the assessment of frailty, based on Fried et al's phenotype. The timed Moberg picking-up test (MPUT), developed to evaluate hand's function, was found moderately but significantly correlated with WS. We compared the relationship between slowness, assessed by MPUT and WS tests, and mortality. DESIGN:Observational (prospective cohort study). SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS:4731 community-dwelling adults included in 2004, 2009, or 2014 in the ongoing Lausanne cohort 65+ (Lc65+) were assessed at the age of 66-71 years. METHOD:Mortality was compared for individuals above and below percentile 80 of MPUT, and respectively WS performance time, according to the Fried criterion. Multivariable analysis using Cox's regression models were adjusted for age, sex, height and grip strength. The predictive capability of MPUT and WS was assessed in adjusted models using Harrell C. RESULTS:Slowness in MPUT and in WS test was associated with mortality at 4, 9, and 14 years (P < .001). Survival curves showed lower survival rates in the highest percentile for both tests (P < .001), regardless of the follow-up period. Cox models indicated a higher risk of death at 4 years [adjusted hazard ratio (95% confidence interval): MPUT, 2.1 (1.5-3.0); WS, 2.2 (1.5-3.1)], 9 years [MPUT 1.7 (1.3-2.3); WS 2.0 (1.5-2.6)] and 14 years [MPUT 1.8 (1.4-2.3); WS 1.8 (1.4-2.4)] for participants above the 80th percentile (all P < .001). The 2 tests had similar predictive capability (Harrell C: MPUT, between 61% and 68%; WS, between 62% and 69%). CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS:Poor performance in MPUT is associated with increased mortality at the short and long term among community-dwelling older adults. This alternative to WS in the assessment of slowness has similar predictive capability for mortality and avoids biased estimates because of nonrandom exclusion of individuals unable to complete WS.