Hurricane Simulation and Extremal Analysis with Adaptations for a Changing Climate

Particularly important to hurricane risk assessment for coastal regions is finding accurate approximations of return probabilities of maximum windspeeds. Since extremes in maximum windspeed have a direct relationship to minimums in the central pressure, accurate windspeed return estimates rely heavily on proper modeling of the central pressure minima. Using the HURDAT2 database, we show that the central pressure minima can be appropriately modeled by a nonstationary extreme value distribution. We also provide and validate a Poisson distribution with a nonstationary rate parameter to model returns of hurricane events. Using these nonstationary models and adapting ideas from established literature, we perform a simulation study to estimate returns of maximum windspeeds along the US North Atlantic Coast. We show that these adaptations result in an expectation of higher maximum windspeeds for all regions along the coast with the highest maximum windspeeds occurring in the northern part of the coast.