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An Integrated Population Model for Harvest Management of Atlantic Brant

Journal of Wildlife Management(2021)SCI 2区SCI 3区

US Fish & Wildlife Serv | US Geol Survey | New Jersey Div Fish & Wildlife | Canadian Wildlife Serv

Cited 6|Views12
Abstract
ABSTRACTAtlantic brant (Branta bernicla hrota) are important game birds in the Atlantic Flyway and several long‐term monitoring data sets could assist with harvest management, including a count‐based survey and demographic data. Considering their relative strengths and weaknesses, integrated analysis to these data would likely improve harvest management, but tools for integration have not yet been developed. Managers currently use an aerial count survey on the wintering grounds, the mid‐winter survey, to set harvest regulations. We developed an integrated population model (IPM) for Atlantic brant that uses multiple data sources to simultaneously estimate population abundance, survival, and productivity. The IPM abundance estimates for data from 1975–2018 were less variable than annual mid‐winter survey counts or Lincoln estimates, presumably reflecting better accounting for observer error and incorporation of demographic estimates by the IPM. Posterior estimates of adult survival were high (0.77–0.87), and harvest rates of adults and juveniles were positively correlated with more liberal hunting regulations (i.e., hunting days and the daily bag limit). Productivity was variable, with the percent of juveniles in the winter population ranging from 1% to >40%. We found no evidence for environmental relationships with productivity. Using IPM‐predicted population abundances rather than mid‐winter survey counts alone would have meant fewer annual changes to hunting regulations since 2004. Use of the IPM could improve harvest management for Atlantic brant by providing the ability to predict abundance before annual hunting regulations are set, and by providing more stable hunting regulations, with fewer annual changes. © 2021 The Wildlife Society.
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Atlantic brant,Branta bernicla hrota,harvest,hunting,integrated population model,Lincoln estimate,mid&#8208,winter survey,productivity,survival
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要点】:本文提出了一个集成的种群模型(IPM),通过结合多种数据源来估计大西洋黑雁的种群数量、存活率和繁殖率,以提高狩猎管理的效果。

方法】:作者利用了包括基于计数调查和人口统计数据在内的多种数据源,开发了一个能够同步估计种群数量、存活率和繁殖率的集成模型。

实验】:研究使用了1975年至2018年的数据,通过集成种群模型对大西洋黑雁的种群数量进行估计,并与年度中期冬季调查计数和林肯估计进行了比较,结果显示IPM估计的种群数量变异性较小,成活率估计较高,并且狩猎率与较为宽松的狩猎规定正相关,而繁殖率则显示出较大的变异性,未发现与环境的直接关系。使用IPM预测的种群数量代替仅使用中期冬季调查计数,自2004年以来可以减少年度狩猎规定的变动。