Post-liberal urban dynamics in India – The case of Gurugram, the ‘Millennium City’

Urbanization in post-liberal India is quite dynamic, reflecting via rapid land use land cover (LULC) changes in (peri)urban areas. The manner of these changes challenges the sustainable growth of India's urban agglomerations. The present study investigated this dynamic character of urbanization in Gurugram, the ‘millennium city' of India. Multitemporal satellite imageries (i.e., 1991, 2000, 2009, 2014, 2018) were combined with other secondary data (e.g., census, point of information, elevation, etc.) for analysis. LULC maps were prepared using the maximum-likelihood supervised image classification technique. Characterization of urban dynamics included multitemporal LULC transition matrixes, urban footprint analysis, and the process of new urban growth. Further, Cellular Automata and Markov Chain (CA-Markov) were also utilized for future built-up prediction till 2030. The result showed that the built-up area grew about 30% during 1991–2018, where land mostly converted from agriculture and open land. The growth of sub-urban built-up was much higher during 1991–2009, but since 2009 the growth of urban built-up was twice as high as the increase in suburban built-up, indicating a compacted urban growth phase of Gurugram. Contrary, rural open land reduced drastically. The new built-up in Gurugram mainly grew through the extension process, rather than infilling and leapfrogging. The built-up will increase to 57% in 2030, in contrast to 34% in 2018 of the study areas, if the growth model follows similar rules like the past growth. However, the question of urban sustainability remains uncertain in Gurugram as natural resources and biodiversity are declining severely. The present study provides a better understanding of past and future urban growth and highlights the need for policy to gear sustainable urban development actively.