Development And Validation Of A Prognostic Score For Long-Term Transplant-Free Survival In Autoimmune Hepatitis Type 1

Background No prognostic score is currently available for long-term survival in autoimmune hepatitis (AIH) patients. Objective The aim of this study was to develop and validate such a prognostic score for AIH patients at diagnosis. Methods The prognostic score was developed using uni- & multivariate Cox regression in a 4-center Dutch cohort and validated in an independent 6-center Belgian cohort. Results In the derivation cohort of 396 patients 19 liver transplantations (LTs) and 51 deaths occurred (median follow-up 118 months; interquartile range 60-202 months). In multivariate analysis age (hazard ratio [HR] 1.045; p < 0.001), non-caucasian ethnicity (HR 1.897; p = 0.045), cirrhosis (HR 3.266; p < 0.001) and alanine aminotransferase level (HR 0.725; p = 0.003) were significant independent predictors for mortality or LT (C-statistic 0.827; 95% CI 0.790-0.864). In the validation cohort of 408 patients death or LT occurred in 78 patients during a median follow-up of 74 months (interquartile range: 25-142 months). Predicted 5-year event rate did not differ from observed event rate (high risk group 21.5% vs. 15.7% (95% CI: 6.3%-24.2%); moderate risk group 5.8% versus 4.3% (95% CI: 0.0%-9.1%); low risk group 1.9% versus 5.4% (95% CI: 0.0%-11.4%); C-statistic 0.744 [95% CI 0.644-0.844]). Conclusions A Dutch-Belgian prognostic score for long-term transplant-free survival in AIH patients at diagnosis was developed and validated.