Multi-Scale Demographic Analysis Reveals Range Contraction Via Pseudo-Source And Sink Population Structure

Naturally occurring populations of most species are distributed non-uniformly across their ranges. Observed changes in range-wide population size are attributed to local-scale processes such as fecundity and survival and to regional scale demographic processes such as immigration. It is often infeasible to study a species across its entire range, and we frequently make inferences on populations as a whole based on the demographic rates of a more restricted area. Extrapolating inferences about demographic processes from study areas to the entire species' range can lead to erroneous estimations, particularly when permanent emigrants contribute significantly to individual population processes. In this paper, we evaluated demographic processes and population trends at multiple scales for tricolored blackbirds (Agelaius tricolor) in California using site-specific banding data and range-wide citizen-science data. First, we found that a previous estimate of statewide decline of 34% is largely driven by an estimated decline of 51.7% for the southern population. Second, we found evidence of a pseudo-source and sink system, with the northern region acting as a sink for individuals moving from the declining southern region. The southern region is a "pseudo-source" since it has lower rates of adult survival and an annual growth rate of r = -0.099, while still acting as a source of immigrants for the northern region. In turn, the north fits the traditional definition of a sink by an annual growth rate near zero, in addition to declining at a rate of 2.5% even though it is estimated to receive immigrants from the south at rates ranging from 8.3% to 13.2% per year. Our results suggest that the loss of wetland habitats in Southern California, coupled with increasing severity of droughts driven by changing climatic conditions, has created this pseudo-source and sink system. Long term, tricolored blackbirds are likely to experience range contraction in the south, and the northern region is likely to undergo declines due to a loss of immigrants from the south.