Long‐term planning scenarios of new nuclear capacity in Mexico using the IAEA INPRO methodology

One of the medium and long-term objectives that nations with nuclear technologies focus on is to obtain more sustainable nuclear systems and make optimal use of nuclear resources. The International Atomic Energy Agency, through the INPRO collaborative project, proposes a series of strategies and tools focused on this purpose, which have been used in this work. Therefore, based on these tools: Nuclear Fuel Cycle Simulation System, KIND Evaluation Tool, and MESSAGE, this article proposes a methodology for assessing nuclear scenarios that covers, through key indicators, features involved in the nuclear fuel cycle and economic aspects to determine the best ones. Three scenarios that foresee the incorporation of new nuclear power plants in Mexico were set-up and studied. In the first scenario (E1), the introduction of AP1000 reactors from 2030 is analyzed with a frequency of introduction of a reactor every 4 years. The second scenario (E2) is like the previous one with the particularity that it incorporates a share of 30% fuel MOX in the reactor core. The third scenario (E3) considers the introduction of AP1000 reactors and EFR fast reactors type from the year 2062 with 80% fuel reprocessing. In order to be able to make a proper comparison, all the scenarios cover the time horizon until the year 2100 and were set-up in such a way that the final energy delivered is 15 000 GWh. The variables involved in the nuclear fuel cycle of each scenario were obtained and the best proposed alternative was quantitatively determined. For the studied alternatives (E1, E2, and E3 scenarios) the superiority is evident in the entire nuclear fuel cycle for fast reactor technologies and nuclear fuel reprocessing, but the cost associated to them is higher compared to more conservative alternatives such as the case of the E2 scenario. Therefore, it is considered that an immediate nuclear expansion in the case of Mexico would contemplate in the first instance AP1000 reactors.