Prediction model for thyrotoxic atrial fibrillation: a retrospective study

Background Thyrotoxic atrial fibrillation (TAF) is a recognized significant complication of hyperthyroidism. Early identification of the individuals predisposed to TAF would improve thyrotoxic patients’ management. However, to our knowledge, an instrument that establishes an individual risk of the condition is unavailable. Therefore, the aim of this study is to build a TAF prediction model and rank TAF predictors in order of importance using machine learning techniques. Methods In this retrospective study, we have investigated 36 demographic and clinical features for 420 patients with overt hyperthyroidism, 30% of which had TAF. At first, the association of these features with TAF was evaluated by classical statistical methods. Then, we developed several TAF prediction models with eight different machine learning classifiers and compared them by performance metrics. The models included ten features that were selected based on their clinical effectuality and importance for model output. Finally, we ranked TAF predictors, elicited from the optimal final model, by the machine learning tehniques. Results The best performance metrics prediction model was built with the extreme gradient boosting classifier. It had the reasonable accuracy of 84% and AUROC of 0.89 on the test set. The model confirmed such well-known TAF risk factors as age, sex, hyperthyroidism duration, heart rate and some concomitant cardiovascular diseases (arterial hypertension and conjestive heart rate). We also identified premature atrial contraction and premature ventricular contraction as new TAF predictors. The top five TAF predictors, elicited from the model, included (in order of importance) PAC, PVC, hyperthyroidism duration, heart rate during hyperthyroidism and age. Conclusions We developed a machine learning model for TAF prediction. It seems to be the first available analytical tool for TAF risk assessment. In addition, we defined five most important TAF predictors, including premature atrial contraction and premature ventricular contraction as the new ones. These results have contributed to TAF prediction investigation and may serve as a basis for further research focused on TAF prediction improvement and facilitation of thyrotoxic patients’ management.