No evidence that HLA genotype influences the driver mutations that occur in cancer patients

The major histocompatibility (MHC) molecules are capable of presenting neoantigens resulting from somatic mutations on cell surfaces, potentially directing immune responses against cancer. This led to the hypothesis that cancer driver mutations may occur in gaps in the capacity to present neoantigens that are dependent on MHC genotype. If this is correct, it has important implications for understanding oncogenesis and may help to predict driver mutations based on genotype data. In support of this hypothesis, it has been reported that driver mutations that occur frequently tend to be poorly presented by common MHC alleles and that the capacity of a patient’s MHC alleles to present the resulting neoantigens is predictive of the driver mutations that are observed in their tumor. Here we show that these reports of a strong relationship between driver mutation occurrence and patient MHC alleles are a consequence of unjustified statistical assumptions. Our reanalysis of the data provides no evidence of an effect of MHC genotype on the oncogenic mutation landscape.