Exploring the Relationship Between Production Intensity and Land Use: A Meta-Analytic Approach with Shrimp Aquaculture.

Shrimp are one of the fastest growing commodities in aquaculture and have a considerable land footprint. Here, we explored the impact of utilizing different production methods (extensive vs intensive) for expanding shrimp production on the cumulative land footprint of shrimp aquaculture. A meta-analytic approach was utilized to simultaneously estimate model coefficients to explore three relationships: production intensity and total land burden, production intensity and the proportion of land at the farm, and production intensity and the farmland burden. A literature review was conducted and a total of 7 datasets, 22 subsets, and 973 individual farms were included in this study. The global models were as follows: model 1 -> ln (total land burden) = 0.1165-0.3863 * ln (production intensity), model 2 -> proportion of direct (farm) land use:total land use = 0.7592-0.1737 * ln (production intensity), model 3 -> ln (direct land use) = 0.1991-0.9674 * ln (production intensity). Production expansion was modeled under different scenarios. The most land intensive projections involved using only extensive systems to increase production when compared to a business-as-usual scenario. The least land intensive scenario involved utilizing intensive systems. A scenario where farmland was not expanded used 17% less land and 28% less land to produce 7.5 and 10 million tons of shrimp, respectively, when compared to business-asusual scenarios. These estimates are limited by uncertainty in shrimp feed composition but demonstrate the effect of production intensity on the overall land footprint of shrimp production.