Lichen-based critical loads for deposition of nitrogen and sulfur in US forests

Critical loads are thresholds of atmospheric deposition below which harmful ecological effects do not occur. Because lichens are sensitive to atmospheric deposition, lichen-based critical loads can foreshadow changes of other forest processes. Here, we derive critical loads of nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S) deposition for continental US and coastal Alaskan forests, based on nationally consistent lichen community surveys at 8855 sites. Across the eastern and western US ranges of 459 lichen species, each species' realized optimum was the N or S atmospheric deposition value at which it most frequently occurred. The mean of optima for all species at a site, weighted by their abundances, was defined as a community “airscore” indicative of species’ collective responses to atmospheric deposition. To determine critical loads for adverse community compositional shifts, we then modeled changes in airscores as a function of deposition, climate and forest habitat predictors in nonparametric multiplicative regression. Critical loads, indicative of initial shifts from pollution-sensitive toward pollution-tolerant species, occurred at 1.5 kg N ha−1 y−1 and 2.7 kg S ha−1 y−1. Importantly, these critical loads remain constant under any climate regime nationwide, suggesting both simplicity and nationwide applicability. Our models predict that preventing excess N deposition of just 0.2–2.0 kg ha−1 y−1 in the next century could offset the detrimental effects of predicted climate warming on lichen communities. Because excess deposition and climate warming both harm the most ecologically influential species, keeping conditions below critical loads would sustain both forest ecosystem functioning and climate resilience.