Fractal dimension in CT low attenuation areas is predictive of long-term oxygen therapy initiation in COPD patients: Results from two observational cohort studies

Background Some chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients develop hypoxemia with disease progression, with some even requiring long-term oxygen therapy (LTOT). Lung function, especially diffusing capacity, and the annual decline in PaO2, are reported to be predictive factors of chronic respiratory failure. However, the association between lung morphometry evaluated using computed tomography (CT) images and LTOT initiation is unknown. Methods We retrospectively evaluated the relationship between clinical indices, including pulmonary function, body mass index (BMI), and CT parameters, at baseline and LTOT initiation in two prospective COPD cohorts. In the Nara Medical University cohort (n = 76), the low attenuation area (LAA) and its fractal dimension (fractal D) were adapted as the indices for parenchymal destruction in CT images. The association between these CT measurements and LTOT initiation was replicated in the Kyoto University cohort (n = 130). Results In the Nara Medical University cohort, lower BMI (hazard ratio [HR]:0.70, p = 0.006), lower % diffusing capacity (%DLCO) (HR: 0.92, p = 0.006), lower %DLCO/VA (HR, 0.90, p = 0.008), higher RV/TLC (HR, 1.26, p = 0.012), higher LAA% (HR: 1.18, p = 0.001), and lower fractal D (HR: 3.27 × 10−8, p < 0.001) were associated with LTOT initiation. Multivariate analysis in the Kyoto University cohort confirmed that lower %DLCO and lower fractal D were independently associated with LTOT initiation, whereas LAA% was not. Conclusion Fractal D, which is the index for morphometric complexity of LAA in CT analysis, is predictive of LTOT initiation in COPD patients.