Quantifying impacts of climate dynamics and land-use changes on water yield service in the agro-pastoral ecotone of northern China

Y Large-scale revegetation practices have lasted approximately two decades in the agro-pastoral ecotone of northern China (AENC), and their impacts on hydrological and ecological effects remain poorly understood. Previous studies largely focused on assessing water yield service ( WYs) based on several fixed time points, whereas time series information-continuous WYs dynamics were more reliable and valuable in decision-making about water sustainability goals. This study analyzed the interannual WYs trend and relative roles of its drivers in the last 20 years based on a newly proposed approach, and revealed the past, present and future impacts of revegetation on WYs. The final results indicated that the annual WYs averaged approximately 97 mm and exhibited an increasing trend of 1.96 mm year(-1) (p = 0.086) during 2000-2019, in which climate and land-use changes were responsible for 88% and 12% of WYs variations, respectively. From 2000 to 2019, WYs was pronouncedly 1.47 mm year(-1) (p = 0.119) lower in the afforestation area than in the nonafforestation area, but the precipitation in the two regions had a statistically insignificant difference (p = 0.97). Future revegetation scenarios showed great potential for the shrinkage of WYs provision, even approaching a maximum of 50 mm at a local scale. Even so, the afforestation-induced reductions in bluewater and benefits in green water both should receive equal attention. Specifically, any attempts to assess WYs or other climate-driven ecosystem services using discontinuous years as the study period must be taken with extreme caution. (C) 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.