Predictors of Recurrence of Dysplasia or Cancer in Patients with Dysplastic Barrett’s Esophagus Following Complete Eradication of Dysplasia: a Single-Center Retrospective Cohort Study

Background and aims Endoscopic mucosal resection (EMR) and radiofrequency ablation (RFA) for Barrett's esophagus (BE)-related high-grade dysplasia (HGD) and early esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) are considered effective treatments for eradication of BE. Little is known about the impact of achieving complete eradication of intestinal metaplasia (CE-IM) following the complete eradication of neoplasia (CE-N), specifically if CE-IM reduces the risk of recurrent dysplasia. Methods Retrospective cohort study of consecutive patients with BE and HGD or intramucosal cancer (IMC)-treated endoscopically at a tertiary referral center between 2001 and 2019. Association between CE-IM and recurrent dysplasia after CE-N was evaluated. Results A total of 433 patients treated with EMR and/or RFA were included. Of these, 381 (88%) achieved CE-N, of which 345 (80%) had adequate follow-up for inclusion in the analysis. A total of 266 (77%) patients achieved CE-IM; with a median follow-up since initial treatment for HGD/IMC of 45.9 months (IQR 25.9, 93.1); 20 patients (5.8%) had recurrent dysplasia after achieving CE-N. Kaplan Meier survival curves revealed that time free of recurrence in those who achieved CE-IM was significantly higher (p = 0.002). In the multivariable analysis, CE-IM was associated with a significant lower hazard of recurrence (HR 0.2, 95% CI 0.1, 0.6), whereas the number of endoscopic treatments to achieve CE-N was associated with a significant higher hazard of recurrence (HR 1.1, 95% CI 1.0, 1.2). Conclusion Achieving CE-IM following CE-N reduces the risk of recurrent dysplasia and should be considered a treatment target among patients with BE undergoing endoscopic therapies for HGD or EAC.