Predicting the fitness costs of complex mutations

The fitness cost of complex pleiotropic mutations is generally difficult to assess. On the one hand, it is necessary to identify which molecular properties are directly altered by the mutation. On the other, this alteration modifies the activity of many genetic targets with uncertain consequences. Here, we examine the possibility of addressing these challenges by identifying unique predictors of these costs. To this aim, we consider mutations in the RNA polymerase (RNAP) in Escherichia coli as a model of complex mutations. Changes in RNAP modify the global program of transcriptional regulation, with many consequences. Among others is the difficulty to decouple the direct effect of the mutation from the response of the whole system to such mutation. A problem that we solve quantitatively with data of a set of constitutive genes, which better read the global program. We provide a statistical framework that incorporates the direct effects and other molecular variables linked to this program as predictors, which leads to the identification that some genes are more suitable predictors than others. Therefore, we not only identified which molecular properties best anticipate costs in fitness, but we also present the paradoxical result that, despite pleiotropy, specific genes serve as better predictors. These results have connotations for the understanding of the architecture of robustness in biological systems. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest.