Scenario-based development of intelligent transportation systems for road freight transport in Germany

This chapter deals with a scenario analysis for intelligent transportation systems (ITS) in the context of road freight transport in Germany for the year 2030. Interdependency and similarity analysis identified relevant key factors that were used to generate three environment scenarios for the future of ITS for road freight transport. The first scenario “Efficiency is key” shows a development toward a strongly cooperating and networking society. In the second scenario, “Uncertain times,” political unrest is expected, which leads to a cautious and protectionist attitude to communication openness. The third scenario “Standstill” is negative in its basic tone and formulated as an obstacle to development for ITS. All three scenarios depend on the development of the identified key factors, which range from political upheaval and disastrous road infrastructure to prosperous economic and technological development.