Geographically Weighted Logistic Regression To Identify Explanatory Factor Of Land Use Distribution In Future Scenarios Of Urban Growth

Urban expansion is a spatio-temporal process that reflects the localization patterns of the population and its activities, which can cause irreversible impacts on the territory. The construction of narratives and the subsequent mapping of future scenarios has been revealed as a planning technique, which can help in the management and planning of land use and transport. The Corridor of Henares (Madrid) has been chosen as a case study, representing the spatial evolution of five urban land uses in three disruptive scenarios for 2050. The present research aims to determine which explanatory factors influenced the process of spatialization of the five uses that was projected in a previous mapping workshop. In this way, the aim is to provide more precise information about the driving factors of use changes in each scenario, which could later be applied to new spatial models of urban simulation. Thus, given the ubiquitous nature of urbanization processes, Geographically Weighted Logistic Regression (GWLR) was used as it enables a spatial analysis of the relationships between the explanatory factors that global models do not allow to study. The outcomes showed coincidences between the most significant factors of the model and the scenario narratives.