Structural Change In Peach Production And Dynamic Relationship Between Its Production And Area Using Time Series Analysis

The purpose of this study was to examine whether climate change has had a nation-wide impact on peach production based on long-term time series data from 1980 to 2019 in Korea. We analyzed the structural change in peach production and the dynamic relationship between its production and cultivation area to provide information that can influence decision making by potential and existing fruit farms and related organizations. First, we found that large-scale natural disasters (freezing damage, typhoons) affected the structural change in the peach production in 2010. Second, the dynamic relationship between peach production and cultivation area was greatly diluted after 2010. The change in the cultivation area from 1980 to 2009 had a positive effect on production, but from 2011 to 2019, the peach cultivation area rapidly increased due to external diseconomy from the 2015 FTA closure support project. Third, due to the rapid increase in cultivation area, it is expected that an excess of nearly 300,000 tons of peaches will be produced in the near future. Therefore, the central government, local governments, and related organizations should take measures to reduce peach cultivation, mitigate the impact of climate change, and establish a timely information delivery system. On the other hand, peaches should be distributed abroad through quality improvement and export expansion. Through this, it is necessary to strengthen the competitiveness of peaches and maintain a stable supply to improve and stabilize farm household income in the long term.