The Future of Our Suburbs: Analyses of Heatwave Vulnerability in a Planned Estate

Planned estates may be a solution to housing demand and affordability in high growth regions. As a result, planned estate research has tended to focus on privatisation, social engineering of communities by developers, and social polarisation. Heatwave research has focused on measuring and mitigating the impact of such events on disadvantaged communities. However, these two research streams have not been combined to examine how planned estate residents may be vulnerable to heatwaves. We address that gap by considering past, current, and future heatwave impacts; identifying underlying processes governing the vulnerability of planned estates to heatwaves; and reflecting on the implications for the sustainability of planned estates in relation to future heatwave risk. We adopt a mixed-methods approach using the case of the Jordan Springs estate in Western Sydney, Australia, and that work is underpinned by systems approaches embedded in sustainability science. We find that Jordan Springs is physically vulnerable to heatwaves due to characteristics in its built environment. Human vulnerability is complex: rooted in multiscalar socio-economic and systemic processes both internal and external to the estate. We suggest resilience be increased to improve estate liveability and sustainability by retrofitting the built environment, improving urban greening, broadening consumer awareness, and modifying development processes.