Impact of Weather on Cow-Calf Industry Locations and Production in the United States

CONTEXT: Significant seasonal weather changes can create uncertainty in cattle markets due to resulting decreased cattle performance, increased animal mortality rates, and elevated production costs. Significant fluctuations in the number of beef cow inventories are a result of market conditions and weather changes. In addition, changes in industry structure, forage availability, and cost of transporting animals versus forage have caused geographic movement of the cow-calf sector in the United States. Cows are usually pasture-raised year-round, thus fulfilling nearly two-thirds of their forage requirements. Changes in weather, however, can directly affect forage quantity and quality, potentially directly impacting animal growth through feed intake. OBJECTIVE: Because weather impacts on cow-calf production in the United States has received minimal research attention, this paper provides new empirical evidence of weather effects on location and production of the cow-calf industry. METHODS: An econometric model of location and production is developed to examine the impact of temperature and total precipitation changes for each season, and economic factors on the spatial structure and geographical location of cow-calf production in 25 major cow-calf producing states in the U.S. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: The results show that seasonal temperatures and total seasonal precipitation significantly impact county-level beef cow inventories and operational locations. The results also reveal significant spatial patterns relative to positive correlations of beef cow inventories across counties. SIGNIFICANCE: Changes in production resulting from weather changes ultimately affect operational profits. Knowledge regarding the economic impacts of increases in seasonal average temperature and precipitation variability on cow-calf production is needed by producers to develop risk-mitigating practices and production planning. Significant spatial patterns are also important for sector-specific development and concentration because understanding the importance of the spatial location of cow-calf operations may help policymakers formulate effective policies to facilitate sector development.