Not all forests are alike: the role of commercial forest in the conservation of landscape connectivity for the giant panda

Context The downlisting of giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) from Endangered to Vulnerable in IUCN Red List confirms the effectiveness of current conservation practices. However, future survival of giant panda is still in jeopardy due to habitat fragmentation and climate change. Maintaining movement corridors between habitat patches in the newly established Giant Panda National Park (GPNP) is the key for the long-term sustainability of the species. Objectives We evaluated the impacts of conversion from natural forest to plantation on giant panda habitat connectivity, which is permitted within collective forests and encouraged by the policies for the economic benefits of local communities. We modeled distribution of giant panda habitat in Minshan Mountains which harbors its largest population, and delineated movement corridors between core habitat patches under management scenarios of different forest conversion proportions. Methods We applied an integrated species distribution model based on inhomogeneous Poisson point process to combine presence-only data and site occupancy data, and least-cost models to identify potential movement corridors between core habitat patches. Results We found that current distribution of plantation has not damaged connectivity between core habitat patches of giant panda. However, it could be severely degraded if mass conversion occurred. Since the GPNP incorporates all the core habitats identified from our model, controlling natural forest conversion inside GPNP would maintain the movement corridors for giant panda. Conclusions We recommend no expansion of plantations inside the GPNP, and improving collective forest management for expansion of ecological forest in adjoining habitat patches.