Predicting Suicide: Serotonin Presynapse Dynamic Modelling And Machine Learning Approach

Suicide has become one of the most prominent concerns for public health and wellness; however, detecting suicide risk factors among individuals remains a big challenge. The aim of this study was to develop a machine learning algorithm that could effectively and accurately identify the probability of suicide attempts in medical college students.A total of 4,882 medical students were enrolled in this cross-sectional study. Self-report data on socio-demographic and clinical characteristics were collected online via website or through the widely used social media app, WeChat. 5-fold cross validation was used to build a random forest model with 37 suicide attempt predictors. Model performance was measured for sensitivity, specificity, area under the curve (AUC), and accuracy. All analyses were conducted in MATLAB.The random forest model achieved good performance [area under the curve (AUC) = 0.9255] in predicting suicide attempts with an accuracy of 90.1% (SD = 0.67%), sensitivity of 73.51% (SD = 2.33%) and specificity of 91.68% (SD = 0.82%).The participants are primarily females and medical students.This study demonstrates that the random forest model has the potential to predict suicide attempts among medical college students with high accuracy. Our findings suggest that application of the machine learning model may assist in improving the efficiency of suicide prevention.