Spatio-Temporal Analysis To Assess Health Effects Of Landscape Fire Smoke: An Empirical Model

Abstract Background Understanding the health effects of smoke from landscape fires (LFs), including wildfires and prescribed burns, is limited due to lack of adequate smoke exposure measures. Methods We used the reported LFs to determine smoke plume shapes from satellite images. Daily remotely sensed fire radiative power, aerosol optical depth, smoke plumes, fire danger rating, venting index and previous day PM 2.5 were then used to estimate smoke-related particulate matter 2.5 (PM2.5). A population based time series design was used to assess associations between smoke-related PM2.5 and selected adverse health outcomes such as hospital admissions, emergency department visits and ambulance callouts. Results We found a significant dose-response relationship between increased smoke-related PM2.5 concentration and 1% to 5% increase for total emergency department attendances and total hospital admissions on the same day and the lag effects of 3 days where the PM2.5 was at medium level (95-98th percentile) and high level ( > =99th percentile) compared to the low level (<95th percentile). There was also 1% to 25% increased risk for individuals who were exposed to high level LF smoke with selected respiratory and cardiovascular diseases in selected health care utilisations. Conclusions Exposure to LF smoke at a high level was spatio-temporally associated with a wide range of adverse respiratory and cardiovascular diseases in selected health care utilisations. Key messages