Comparison of Current and Enhanced Risk Stratification of 21,199 Children, Adolescents, and Young Adults with Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia Using Objective Risk Categorization Criteria: A Children's Oncology Group Report

Contemporary risk stratification algorithms commonly use threshold-defined categories of clinically relevant risk factors. The Children's Oncology Group (COG) uses National Cancer Institute (NCI) risk group (RG), cytogenetics, and early response to therapy measured by minimal residual disease (MRD) using flow cytometry on day 8 peripheral blood (D8 PB) and day 29 bone marrow (D29 BM). However, it is unclear whether assigning different weights to individual risk factors, as well as using numerical values as continuous, rather than categorical, would more accurately predict relapse risk. Previous work (Loh, ASH 2020) described validation of a continuous prognostic index (PI) for risk of relapse published by UK investigators incorporating favorable and unfavorable genetics, white blood cell count (WBC), and D29 BM as continuous variables (O'Connor, JCO 2018; Enshaei, Blood 2020), and assessed the added value of D8 PB. We now extend this work by comparing patient outcomes with current COG risk classification to PI-derived risk classifications on the previously described population (Loh, ASH 2020).