Developing seed transfer strategies for European Lodgepole pine reforestation to address climate change

Lodgepole pine is an important commercial tree species both in its native North America and as an introduced and naturalized species in Europe. Particularly in Sweden, intensive lodgepole pine forestry systems have been developed to maximize productivity through tree improvement programs that select provenances and genotypes that are well adapted to the environmental conditions where the lodgepole pine is grown as an introduced species. The benefits of such efforts to optimize growth and adaptation are, however, threatened by observed and projected climate change, leading to physiological stress and potentially exposing them to novel disease agents. The objective of this thesis is to develop guidelines for regional use of lodgepole pine in Europe. Specifically, I contribute: 1) a comparison of Lodgepole pine growth observed in European provenance tests with growth performance of native tree species for different climatic regions of Europe; 2) an assessment of the potential pest and disease risks of lodgepole pine for different climatic regions of Europe based on a comprehensive literature review; 3) an evaluation of how previous work on bioclimatic envelope modelling of lodgepole pine in Europe can predict competitiveness and health of lodgepole pine plantations under future climate projections. This research suggests that the projections of the realized climatic niche of a species in conjunction with growth analysis of different populations in provenance trials can be useful tools in guiding future reforestation strategies.