Situation of COVID-19 in Brazil: An analysis via growth models as implemented in the ModInterv system for monitoring the pandemic

In this work we analyze the cumulative curves of deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the 26 Brazilian States and the Federal District up until August 21, 2020. Mathematical growth models implemented by the application {sf ModInterv COVID-19}, which can be accessed via internet browser or via a mobile app, were used to investigate at which stage the epidemic is in each of the Brazilian federal units. The analysis revealed that almost all states in the Northern and Northeastern regions were already in the saturation phase, meaning that the epidemic was relatively under control, whereas in all Southern states and in most states in the Midwest the epidemic was still accelerating or showed only a slight deceleration. The Southeastern region presented a great diversity of epidemic stages, with each state being found at a different stage, ranging from acceleration to saturation. It is argued that understanding this heterogeneous geographical distribution of the epidemic is relevant for public health authorities, as it may help in devising more effective strategies against the COVID-19 pandemic in a continental country like Brazil.