COVID-19 Vaccine Hesitancy and Vaccine Passports: Vaccination or Restriction?

Objectives: While the development of vaccines against the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) brought the hope of establishing herd immunity, which might help end the global pandemic, vaccine hesitancy can hinder the progress towards herd immunity. In this study, we assess the determinants of vaccine hesitancy, reasons for hesitation, and effectiveness of vaccine passports in relaxing public health restrictions. Methods: Through an online survey that includes a conjoint experiment of a demographically representative sample of 5,000 Japanese adults aged 20-74, we assess the determinants of vaccine hesitancy, reasons for hesitation, and effectiveness of hypothetical vaccine passports. Results: We found that about 30% of respondents did not intend to vaccinate or have not yet decided, with major reasons for vaccine hesitancy being related to concerns about the safety and side effects of the vaccine. In line with previous findings, younger age, lower socioeconomic status, and psychological factors such as weaker COVID-19 fear were associated with vaccine hesitancy. The easing of public health restrictions such as travel, wearing face masks, and dining out at night was associated with an increase in vaccine acceptance by 4-10%. Conclusion: Vaccine hesitancy can be reduced by mitigating the concerns about vaccine safety and side effects, as well as by relaxing public health restrictions. However, the feasibility of vaccine passports needs to be sufficiently assessed, taking the ethical issues of passports and the public health impacts of the relaxation of restrictions into careful consideration.