Projected Changes in Rainfall and Temperature Extremes Over Kenya

Future climate extremes events are projected to change in frequency and intensity. To mitigate against the negative impacts of the extreme events, future projections are important for the purpose of adaptation to changes that are projected. The study of rainfall and temperature extremes in this article, are defined by the indices from the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices. The study used model outputs from Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) Regional Climate Models (RCMs) over Kenya. Extreme indices for rainfall and temperature were analyzed form 2005 -2100 and compared to the historical period of 1971-2005. Model outputs from CCLM4-8-17, HIRHAM5 and RACMO22T at 50 km resolution under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios were used. The results show that temperature-based extremes indices are on an increasing trend. In particular, the increase in daily minimum temperature is more pronounced than the daily maximum temperature. This show an indication of in warm nights. On the other hand, rainfall based extreme indices show an increasing trend in the consecutive dry day in all the three models analyzed. Results from two models, show a decreasing trend in the total annual precipitation, while HIRHAM5 show a statistically significant increasing trend on annual total precipitation. According to the results, the future changes in rainfall extreme over Kenya is not very clear.