Changes in fertility plans during the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy: the role of occupation and income vulnerability

The health and economic crisis generated by the COVID-19 pandemic is unprecedented in recent human history. We investigate the role of objective and subjective indicators of economic uncertainty due to the COVID-19 crisis in young Italians’ fertility plans during the year 2020. We use unique repeated cross-sectional data, collected at different time points during the pandemic (March and October/November 2020) together with pre-COVID data (2016). The data offer a standard fertility intention question pre- and during-COVID, and also a direct question on whether pre-COVID fertility plans have been confirmed, postponed or abandoned. We find that individuals with more vulnerable occupations show a lower probability of definitely intending to have a(nother) child in the short-term and a higher probability of having abandoned their pre-COVID fertility plan in March 2020, while in October 2020 changes in fertility plans did not vary by occupation. Instead, those who suffered from a negative income shock and those with negative expectations on their future income and occupation are more likely to abandon their pre-pandemic fertility plan compared to their better off counterparts, and these differences hold both in March and October. Overall, economic uncertainty generated by the pandemic seems to have similarly affected men and women’s fertility intentions. Our findings point to the fact that the unequal economic consequences of the pandemic also produced and will produce heterogeneous effects on fertility intentions.