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Samuel Lüthi,Gabriela Aznar-Siguan, Christopher Fairless,David N. Bresch, Olivia Romppainen-Martius

semanticscholar(2021)

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摘要
In light of the dramatic increase in economic impacts due to wildfires over recent years, the need for globally consistent impact modelling of wildfire damages is ever increasing. Insurance companies, individual households, humanitarian organisations and governmental authorities, as well as investors and portfolio owners, are increasingly required to account for climate-related physical risks. In response to these societal challenges, we present an extension to the open-source and openaccess risk modelling platform CLIMADA (CLImate ADAptation) for modelling economic impacts of wildfires in a globally 5 consistent and spatially explicit approach. All input data is free, public and globally available, ensuring applicability in datascarce regions of the Global South. The model was calibrated at resolutions of 1, 4 and 10 kilometers using information on past wildfire damage reported by the disaster database EM-DAT. Despite the large remaining uncertainties, the model yields sound damage estimates with a model performance well in line with the results of other natural catastrophe impact models, such as for tropical cyclones. To complement the global perspective of this study, we conducted two case studies on the recent mega fires 10 in Chile (2017) and Australia (2020). The model is made available online as part of a Python package, ready for application in practical contexts such as disaster risk assessment, near real time impact estimates or physical climate risk disclosure.
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