An evaluation of seismic recovery curve considering the product stock and damage correlation

After the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake, industrial companies that store a certain amount of stocks, i.e., their finished products and unfinished products, are increasing in Japan. It is because they want to continue their business and to fulfill responsibility to supply the products to the market. Therefore, an effect of having the stock, whether rational of having how much stock amounts, method and criteria for judging them are needed. The authors proposed a method that can take the consumption of the stock into account recovery curve of production functions. However, there is practically problem; the earthquake damage of manufacturing apparatuses is assuming an independent. Based on above-mentioned circumstances, in this paper, we newly proposed a practical evaluation method which can estimate rations amount of stocks. And its features are; as basic probability theory, assumed the stock amounts to be finite, and adopted impacts of the damage correlation between manufacturing apparatuses. Using the proposed method, recovery curves for an example of virtual manufacturing line including the stocks are estimated, and obtained results such as following. Recovery curve is significantly changed by the stock consumption of the unit time and duration of the stock consumption. In addition, these factors which vary the recovery curves are strongly affected by the damage correlation.