Determining estimation of ph measurement results using monte carlo method and double exponential smoothing (des) brown at pt. x

PT. X is one of the first pharmaceutical companies in Indonesia to obtain the Good Manufacturing Practices certification in 1990. Quality is considered very important for organizations because it improves the company's reputation, companies that have produced a quality product or service will receive the title as an organization which prioritizes quality. PT X is a pharmaceutical company in the city of Bandung. The problems faced by PT. X is the result of pH measurements for 150 days ago, there were 2 days of pH that was not in accordance with the standard (pH 8.10 8.50) or as much as 1.33% pH which was not in accordance with the standard so that there was more treatment in the process of making the product. This research aim looking for the most suitable forecasting method between the Monte Carlo method and Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) Brown, seen from the smallest MSE value, which will be used as a method to predict pH measurements in the future and knowing the simulation results of the pH calculation in the next 10 days to help the production party decide whether to add time, cost, and people or not. The forecasting method was compared using Monte Carlo and Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) Brown. The MSE value obtained for Monte Carlo forecasting is 0.0032 and Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) Brown's 0.0025, so the forecasting method used is Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) Brown. The results obtained using the Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) Brown method in the next 10 days are 8.45; 8.45; 8.46; 8.46; 8.46; 8.47; 8.47; 8.47; 8.48; 8.48.