Lockdown, essential sectors, and Covid-19: Lessons from Italy

This paper investigates how economic activityimpactedCovid-19infectionsandall-causemor-tality.Tothispurpose,weexploitthedistributionofessentialsectors,whichwereexemptedfromanationallockdownenactedinItalyduringthefirstwaveofthepandemic,acrossprovincesandrichadministrativedatainadifference-in-differencesframework.Wefindthatastandarddevia-tionincreaseinessentialworkersperbuiltsquarekilometreleadsto1.1additionaldailycasesand0.32additionaldailydeathsper100,000inhabitants.Backoftheenvelopecalculationssuggestthataboutonethird(47,000)oftheCovid-19casesandabout13%(13,000)ofdeathsbetweenMarchandMayof2020canbeattributedtothelessstringentlockdownforthesesectors.Theeffectisheterogeneousacrosssectors.Finally,wefindthatthelocalhealthsystemplayedarel-evantroleinreducingfatalitieswithahighernumberofgeneralpractitionersandhospitalbedsper capita being associated with a lower mortality.