Proof of Concept in Assignment of Within-Subject Variability During Virtual Bioequivalence Studies: Propagation of Intra-Subject Variation in Gastrointestinal Physiology Using Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic Modeling

While the concept of ‘Virtual Bioequivalence’ (VBE) using a combination of modelling, in vitro tests and integration of pre-existing data on systems and drugs is growing from its infancy, building confidence on VBE outcomes requires demonstration of its ability not only in predicting formulation-dependent systemic exposure but also the expected degree of population variability. The concept of variation influencing the outcome of BE, despite being hidden with the cross-over nature of common BE studies, becomes evident when dealing with the acceptance criteria that consider the 90% confidence interval (CI) around the relative bioavailability. Hence, clinical studies comparing a reference product against itself may fail due to within-subject variations associated with the two occasions that the individual receives the same formulation. In this proof-of-concept study, we offer strategies to capture the most realistic predictions of CI around the pharmacokinetic parameters by propagating physiological variations through physiologically based pharmacokinetic modelling. The exercise indicates feasibility of the approach based on comparisons made between the simulated and observed WSV of pharmacokinetic parameters tested for a clinical bioequivalence case study. However, it also indicates that capturing WSV of a large array of physiological parameters using backward translation modelling from repeated BE studies of reference products would require a diverse set of drugs and formulations. The current case study of delayed-release formulation of posaconazole was able to declare certain combinations of WSV of physiological parameters as ‘not plausible’. The eliminated sets of WSV values would be applicable to PBPK models of other drugs and formulations. Graphical Abstract