Automatic Judgement Forecasting for Pending Applications of the European Court of Human Rights.

Judicial decision classification using Natural Language Processing and machine learning has received much attention in the last decade. While many studies claim to ‘predict judicial decisions‘, most of them only classify already made judgements. Likely due to the lack of data, there have been only a few studies that discuss the data and the methods to forecast future judgements of the courts on the basis of data available before the court judgement is known. Besides proposing a more consistent and precise terminology, as classification and forecasting each have different uses and goals, we release a first benchmark dataset consisting of documents of the European Court of Human Rights to address this task. The dataset includes raw data as well as pre-processed text of final judgements, admissibility decisions and communicated cases. The latter are published by the Court for pending applications (generally) many years before the case is judged, allowing one to forecast judgements for pending cases. We establish a baseline for this task and illustrate that it is a much harder task than simply classifying judgements.