Bounding the Solution Space of Complex Systems in Terms of Non-Numeric and\or Uncontrollable Scenario Variables

This paper describes an approach to blend several qualitative and quantitative methods to establish the boundaries of complex systems in terms of uncontrollable, non-numeric variables. Decision makers increasingly encounter layered, multidimensional, interconnected issues that contain unknown unknowns, vast uncertainties, and ill-defined lines of demarcation between the beginning and the end of the problem. The inexactness of boundaries in a systems problem is a result of not knowing important variables, existence of uncontrollable variables, and near-uncountable significant interactions among the variables. Furthermore, complexities and systems challenges arise from unexpected emergent behavior(s) that are often the primary concerns of systems engineers. The ability to investigate uncontrollable variables and their interactions with the system of interest is a critical step for bounding the system problem and defining the solution space. Thus, this paper focuses on developing a means for systematically examining these variables. By incorporating scenario-based computer simulations, scenario discretization, and customized designs of experiments, the authors offer systems engineers and scientists an approach for defining a viable solution space of a complex problem by developing constraint equations from uncontrollable, non-numeric variables.