Prognostic factors of 10-year mortality after coronary artery bypass graft surgery: a secondary analysis of the arterial revascularization trial

OBJECTIVES: The objective of this investigation was to determine the preoperative prognostic factors of long-term (10-year) mortality in patients treated with isolated coronary artery bypass graft surgery in the arterial revascularization trial (ART). METHODS: A post hoc analysis of the ART was conducted. Cumulative 10-year mortality was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Prospectively collected preoperative data were used to determine the prognostic factors of 10-year all-cause mortality in patients who participated in the ART (Cox proportional hazards model). RESULTS: A total of 3102 patients who participated in the ART were included in the analysis. Ten-year follow-up was completed in 3040 patients (98%). A total of 644 patients (20.8%) had died by 10 years. Preoperative factors that were identified as statistically significant predictors of 10-year mortality in the multivariable analysis (all P <0.01) were: left ventricular ejection fraction, atrial fibrillation, age, diabetes, prior cerebrovascular event (stroke or transient ischaemic attack), serum creatinine and smoking status. The following variables were significantly associated in univariable models but did not retain significance in the multivariable model for mortality: non-Caucasian ethnicity, hypertension, peripheral vascular disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and prior myocardial infarction. CONCLUSIONS: Independent predictors of 10-year mortality in the ART were multifactorial. Several key independent predictors of 10year mortality in the ART were identified including: heart function, renal function, cerebrovascular disease, age, atrial fibrillation, smoking status and diabetes. Understanding which preoperative variables influence long-term outcome after coronary artery bypass grafting may help to target treatments to those at higher risk to reduce mortality.