Harmful algae and climate change on the Canadian East Coast: Exploring occurrence predictions of Dinophysis acuminata, D. norvegica, and Pseudo-nitzschia seriata

•24 years of HAB data on the Canadian East Coast were used to fit GAMMs.•GAMMs were run under two downscaled climate models.•D. acuminata and D. norvegica blooms are predicted to increase during the 21st century.•P. seriata bloom events will tend to decrease overall during the 21st century.•All three harmful species show spatio-temporal shifts in their occurrences during the 21st century.