Forecasting Apple Production in Turkey

The aim of this study was to forecast annual apple production in Turkey for the 2020–2025 period using annual 1961–2019 years FAOSTAT data to give useful recommendations on apple production for farmers, consumers, and investors. The time series data regarding apple production was non-stationary, therefore first-degree difference of the time series data was taken to make the data stationary. Several Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models were tested and ARIMA (1,1,0) time series analysis method was found to be more appropriate for evaluating the first difference time series data of this research. The ARIMA (1,1,0) forecasting results showed an increasing trend for apple production for the 2020–2025 period ranging from 3,706,954 to 3,987,050 tons. This study results provide baseline information for apple production sustainability and lightens policy makers to develop new agricultural strategies for the future.