Screening of the population necessary to control the hiv epidemic

The study of the main regularities of the epidemic process in a closed population was carried out using a simple computer model. In a plane, points move at random. A few points are infected, the rest are not. When an infected and healthy point contacts, infection occurs. It is further assumed that the epidemic process will be controlled if the number of detected HIV infected persons at each time point is equal to or greater than the increment of infections in the previous period of time. An estimate of the minimum screening coverage necessary to perform this task. As a result of the research, it has been established that the rate of the epidemic process slows down due to a decrease in the probability of contact of the infected subject with a healthy individual. As a consequence, the minimum coverage required for screening is also reduced. In Krasnoyarsk Regional AIDS Center during 2011–2014 conducted the identification of early cases of infections among newly identified HIV infected individuals. The information obtained makes it possible to calculate effective screening coverage for a given period of time, which also has the same declining trend as in the model experiment, from 49% to 39%, respectively.