An Emerging Trend of Rapid Increase of Leukemia But Not All Cancers in the Aging Population in the United States

Background: Age is a major risk factor for human cancers. The baby boomers born in 1946-1964 in the United States (U.S.) started to reach the age of 65 in 2011, rapidly accelerating the population aging. There were great public concerns about its impact on the health care especially with anticipation of rising cancer incidences. Methods: We examined the rates of incidences and deaths of leukemia and overall cancer in the U.S. from 1998 to 2018 and determined the influence of the population aging using the cancer statistics data collected by the American Cancer Society. Findings: The rates of newly diagnosed acute myeloid leukemia (AML) and chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) incidences remained almost constant prior to 2011 but have climbed up substantially since then, and the rate of chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) incidence has been increasing continuously since 1998. The significant increase of myeloid leukemia and CLL incidence rates was strongly correlated with the U.S. population aging. The rate of all cancers was increased in correlation with a small increase in aging population prior to 2011, but surprisingly has changed marginally since 2011, which was not significantly correlated with the accelerated population aging. We observed the most substantial decline of deaths with CML, whereas AML deaths continued to rise in the past 20 years. Interpretation: The overall cancer incidence rate was not increased as fast as previously feared in aging Americans possibly due to better cancer prevention. However, the rate of myeloid leukemia and CLL significantly outpaced that of all cancers. Funding Statement: This work was supported by the National Institutes of Health (UH2/3 CA213385), the City of Hope Center for Cancer and Aging, and the Norton Basic Research Fund. Declaration of Interests: The authors declare no conflict of interest.