Trigger or time fuse? An empirical methodology for detecting change points and pace in the diffusion of low-carbon technologies

We demonstrate a methodology based on change point analysis to test (i) whether the empirically observed market diffusion of low-carbon technologies conforms with Rogers’ (1983) s-shape pattern and, if not, (ii) when and how the pace of diffusion changes at certain turning points. Connecting these turning points with preceding policy events enables to identify reasons for rapid market take-off or gradual growth. Diffusion processes of low-carbon technologies in Austria differ substantially: electric and hybrid vehicles feature pull-forward effects from intermittent policy interventions; photovoltaic shows sequential logistic functions suggesting shifting levels of market saturation; heat pumps were locked in 20 years of linear growth until accelerated by technological innovation and stricter building standards. Turning points were mostly incurred by technological developments, while policy interventions seem restricted to pull-forward effects or to temporarily fueling market entry. Thus, more stringent fiscal incentives seem necessary to achieve discernible shifts in diffusion dynamic and pace.