Cenários da dinâmica de hipercrescimento e colapso das revistas científicas brasileiras líderes na Ciência da Informação

Brazilian journals in Information Science typically depend on semi-voluntary work, with scarce resources. The inclusion of some of these in reputable databases gives them status and attracts more and more submissions, without resource scalability. This article explores this context through a system dynamics model that represents stocks and flows of papers throughout the editorial process. We run 22 alternative scenarios, with different submissions, with or without interventions (interruption of submissions and sharp increase in desk rejections). Several of these scenarios indicate the journal’s imminent risk of collapsing, regardless of interventions that alleviate the burden only momentarily. Few overburdened editors sustain the system’s continuity.